One of the advantages to the informal nature of this site is that it doesn’t matter how many Oscar articles have already gone up; I can still post another one. And I’m going to. I’ve been writing articles before and after the ceremony every year for at least five years, and I’ve settled on The Solute as my home for these articles, since my other choice appears to be my Deviant Art page!

Anyway, I’m going to go through the list in the order the categories appear on the Academy’s website, because that’s just the easiest way to do this.

Best Picture: I know the smart money is on The Revenant, but I didn’t like The Revenant. I’ve seen six of the eight, and I liked five of them more. I’m also sorry, guys, but I’m not hoping on the Mad Max wagon to Valhalla, here. Yes, they’re the most likely winners, but I thought Room and Spotlight were better than either of them. Bridge of Spies, too, but it isn’t going to win, because Spielberg.

Best Actor: It was pointed out to me this morning that I don’t want Tom Hanks to win in this category. I want Jacob Tremblay of Room to win. But neither of them are nominated. I’ll level with you—I don’t want Leonardo DiCaprio to win, either; I wasn’t all that impressed with his performance, and I don’t buy the argument that he’s “due.” Kate Winslet had more nominations before she won, and there’s only one year of his past nominations where I thought he actually had the best performance (What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?). Of the actual nominees, I thought Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs was the best.

Best Actress: I have to admit to only having seen one of these movies. Just didn’t get the chance to see more. But Brie Larson was awfully good in Room, and I believe she’s considered to have a good chance at winning.

Best Supporting Actor: I’ve seen three of these. I suspect that Sylvester Stallone is going to win, because he’s old and hasn’t been nominated since Rocky and apparently actually put effort into this movie. But if he and Tom Hardy split the vote, I hope a Mark Rylance win sneaks in.

Best Supporting Actress: I saw three of these, too. I’m kind of torn; I thought Alicia Vikander did good work in The Danish Girl, indeed thought she was the lead. But I didn’t like the movie and am hesitant to suggest that people should get awards for doing well in bad movies. From what I hear, though, I’m in favour of Rooney Mara’s winning for Carol, even though that’s also apparently a supporting win for a lead role.

Best Animated Feature: I’ve seen three of these. All three, in fact, come from studios with strong records in the category. I think Pixar’s record is the one that’s going to hold, and I’m not opposed.

Cinematography: I’m not quite the cinematography nut of some others around here. There are even certain stylistic choices that I don’t like but am not sure if they count as cinematography (specifically, stuff getting splattered on lenses, which always bothers me). Anyway, The Revenant is probably going to win, and certainly the parts I liked fall squarely into cinematography, too.

Costume Design: I’ve actually seen four of these, having suffered through Cinderella last night. I almost hope it wins just so I saw it for a reason. And the costumes were definitely the best part, though I have stern things to say about Helena Bonham Carter’s dress. I hear Carol had some really good hats, though.

Directing: Yeah, yeah. We all know who’s going to win. And I wouldn’t be too put out by a George Miller upset. But I’m going to throw out some love for Lenny Abrahamson and Room.

Documentary Feature: There’s a piece in me (not this week, but probably soon) about how we define best documentaries. I found several of these workmanlike, the sort of thing I’d expect to be the only person who had seen because I got it from the library. Sometimes, what was being said was more interesting than how it was said, and maybe that’s a good thing. At any rate, the one I thought was best was The Look of Silence, but we’ll see.

Documentary Short: Believe it or not, I’ve seen one of these; “Last Day of Freedom” is streaming on Netflix. It was really good, but I’m not sure it’s going to win. It’s probably going to be beaten by “Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah.”

Editing: I could make a joke here about how the way to edit The Revenant would have been to make it shorter, but since the movie I would have liked would have been forty-five minutes of nature scenes, we’ll leave that alone. This, I think, is a strong category for Mad Max. I’d accept a win for Star Wars, though.

Foreign Language Film: This is the category where I haven’t seen any of the nominees, the only one. But I hear very good things about Son of Saul.

Makeup and Hairstyling: I enjoyed The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (streaming on Amazon Prime!) quite a lot, and the makeup job on its lead was very good. But Mad Max is going to win.

Original Score: Okay, look, this is another category where the one I want to win isn’t a nominee, because how is Inside Out not a nominee? Though I’m pretty sure Ennio Morricone is going to get his first win. And I’m okay with that, since none of the actual nominees really stood out for me.

Original Song: It’s kind of a lackluster slate this year with the sole exception of “Manta Ray,” which I heard for the first time just now and would be listening to over and over again if I didn’t have a two-year-old whining, “No more music! Courage!” at me.

Production Design: On the other hand, it’s a good year in production design. Three period pieces and two science fiction movies, too. (Well, one science fiction, one dystopic future.) The Revenant is probably going to win, since I’m pretty sure it’s going to win for most of its nominations, but Mad Max would be fine, too.

Animated Short: My heart is with “Sanjay,” I have to admit, because it was adorable. I’m not sure if it’s smart money or just the circles I hang out in, but “World of Tomorrow” is getting mentioned a lot. I guess as long as it isn’t “Prologue”?

Live Action Short: Part of me wants “Ave Maria” to win, because we could use a comedy. Most of the films this year are heavy. On the other hand, so is “Day One,” which I legitimately thought was best.

Sound Editing/Mixing: Apparently, even a lot of industry outsiders want this to be a single category. The fact that it’s usually four of the same films nominated in the category, and sometimes even the same people, lends weight to that. But, sure, The Revenant or Mad Max; I don’t have a strong opinion.

Visual Effects: I kind of want Star Wars to win, but failing that, Mad Max, given how many of its effects were practical.

Screenplay: This is the pair of categories where I don’t feel particularly forced into a popular choice, because neither The Revenant nor Mad Max are nominated—too much grunting in both, presumably. I’ve only seen two of the adapted nominees; I’d kind of like to see The Martian win, because science and also a government official who isn’t vilified for doing his job. I’d be fine with Carol, though. In original, I lean toward Bridge of Spies and the Coens, though I’m also fine with Spotlight. My son, however, refers to Inside Out as “the movie” and loved it, so that’s okay, too.

As always, I’ll be back tonight with a wrap-up for those what care. See everyone then!